Starting 1/25/11 Egypt has been undergoing a popular revolt intending to end Hosni Mubarak’s 30+ year state of emergency rule. After days of demonstrations and violence against protestors, President Mubarak stated on 2/1/11 he will remain in power, amidst eruption of violent protests throughout the country. Several actors are involved- not in the least the Military, Mubarak’s successor Suleiman, Opposition leader elBaradei, Israeli security interests, the US, and of course the Egyptian people.
here are pieces that educated me on the subject
- This piece sheds light on the April 6th Youth movement. The April 6th group organized the initial protests on January 25th, and thousands of others joined in the days that followed.
- Asserts Israeli security interests as the reason why the US has not directly disowned Mubarak. I disagree, US has implicitly left Mubarak, but for political interests elsewhere have not said so explicitly.
- Yasser el-Shimy talks about the economic conditions and failure of Egyptian state to provide for its people.
- Talks about the growing number of participants from all ends of the spectrum. This revolution is real and will ensure Egypt’s future will not resemble the last 3 decades.
- Article claims regime is in full control, no inherent danger of losing power. Will drag on civil unrest until people get exhausted and concede to regime.
- Civil society has been weakened over the course of 30 years and apart from protesting have no tools to call for change. What about the military? Onto the next article!
- Mubarak makes deft moves in appointing Omar Suleiman as VP and Ahmed Shafik as PM; both ex military guys. Military is deeply entrenched in the government, retired officers hold gov positions, and have financial incentives.
- Essentially, the army is the key figure in determining the next face of Egypt.
- Questions whether or not the inner circle chiefs will obey Mubarak or operate in self interest, (support protestors in ousting Mubarak fully). US behavior towards Mubarak functions as a gauge.
- Whether elBaradei and the opposition or Suleiman’s regime; the army will determine the face of post-Mubarak Egypt.
- Norton gives attention to the variety of opposition parties and their stake in determining egypt’s fate. Notes Muslim Brotherhood still biggest opposition group.
- Muhammad elBaradei has been recognized as the representative of several opposition parties. expected to be involved in transitional talks.